Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
